20260723 CDTL NRM D23 16 March 1973 23. Bản ghi nhớ của Kissinger Phụ tá Tổng thống về NSA gửi Tổng thống Nixon.
https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1969-76v18/d23
Google Translated
Tài liệu số 23
Quan hệ Đối ngoại của Hoa Kỳ, 1969–1976, Tập XVIII, Trung Quốc, 1973–1976
23. Bản ghi nhớ của Kissinger Phụ tá Tổng thống về NSA gửi Tổng thống Nixon.
Washington, ngày 16 tháng 3 năm 1973.
CHỦ ĐỀ
Bản phân tích của Bộ Ngoại giao về tình hình chính trị nội bộ đầy bất ổn của Tầu cộng.[Trang 230]
Tại Mục A là bản phân tích về tình hình chính trị hiện nay tại Cộng hòa Nhân dân Trung Hoa do Bộ Ngoại giao soạn thảo và được Ngoại trưởng Rogers gửi tới Ngài. Bản phân tích này dường như phản ánh quan điểm phổ biến nhất trong chính quyền, cho rằng đang tồn tại một thế cân bằng chính trị mong manh và dai dẳng giữa các quan chức Đảng Cộng sản và giới quân sự sau sự kiện Lâm Bưu vào tháng 9 năm 1971. Tài liệu của Bộ Ngoại giao nhấn mạnh những điểm sau:
—Các nhà lãnh đạo Đảng vẫn đang nỗ lực giảm bớt quyền lực của quân đội trong các vấn đề chính trị. Quyền lực này vốn được Lâm Bưu cùng phe cánh của ông ta gây dựng trong thời kỳ Cách mạng Văn hóa. Giờ đây, các nhà lãnh đạo dân sự nhận thấy quân đội tỏ ra miễn cưỡng trong việc từ bỏ quyền lực của mình, ngay cả sau khi Lâm Bưu đã qua đời trong lúc đang chạy trốn sang Liên Xô.
—Ban lãnh đạo trung ương tại Bắc Kinh đang gặp khó khăn trong việc tái tập trung quyền lực. Tình trạng nhân sự tại các địa phương đang biến động mạnh, cho thấy những nỗ lực không ngừng nhằm loại bỏ các lãnh đạo địa phương và cấp tỉnh không tuân thủ chỉ đạo từ Bắc Kinh.
—Ban lãnh đạo quốc gia vẫn duy trì thế cân bằng bấp bênh, do chưa thể đạt được sự đồng thuận về việc bổ nhiệm nhân sự mới. Hiện vẫn chưa có Bộ trưởng Quốc phòng; chưa đến một nửa số bộ ngành đã có bộ trưởng chính thức; và chỉ 12 trong số 25 ủy viên Bộ Chính trị đang thực thi nhiệm vụ.
—Tầu cộng mang đầy đủ diện mạo của một quốc gia đang trải qua cuộc khủng hoảng kế nhiệm chưa có lời giải. Mặc dù các quan chức nhấn mạnh đến cơ chế “lãnh đạo tập thể”, người ta dự báo rằng sự ra đi của Mao Trạch Đông và/hoặc Chu Ân Lai có thể dẫn đến tình trạng bất ổn đáng kể, bởi lẽ các thể chế chính trị vẫn còn mong manh sau bốn năm kể từ khi Cách mạng Văn hóa kết thúc.
1. Nguồn: Cơ quan Lưu trữ Quốc gia, Tài liệu Tổng thống Nixon, Hồ sơ NSC, Hộp 526, Hồ sơ Quốc gia, Viễn Đông, Cộng hòa Nhân dân Trung Hoa, Tập 6, tháng 1–4 năm 1973. Mật; Tài liệu đính kèm không được chia sẻ cho nước ngoài (Noforn). Được gửi để báo cáo thông tin. Holdridge gửi bản ghi nhớ này cho Kissinger vào ngày 29 tháng 1; Kissinger đã ký tắt và chuyển tiếp cho Nixon. (Sđd.) Theo hồ sơ tóm tắt thư từ đính kèm, Nixon đã xem tài liệu này vào ngày 29 tháng 3.↩
2. Đề ngày 8 tháng 1, có đính kèm nhưng không được in ra.↩
3. Tổng thống đã gạch dưới cụm từ “cái chết của Mao Trạch Đông và/hoặc Chu Ân Lai” và viết: “K—ông phân tích thế nào về những gì có thể xảy ra trong tình huống đó?—Chúng ta nên có phương án dự phòng nào?” Vào ngày 29 tháng 3, Scowcroft yêu cầu Holdridge soạn thảo văn bản phúc đáp gửi Tổng thống. (Cơ quan Lưu trữ Quốc gia, Tài liệu Tổng thống Nixon, Hồ sơ NSC, Hộp 526, Hồ sơ Quốc gia, Viễn Đông, Cộng hòa Nhân dân Trung Hoa, Tập 6, tháng 1–4 năm 1973) Theo hồ sơ tóm tắt thư từ của Tòa Bạch Ốc đính kèm bản ghi nhớ của Rogers, yêu cầu này sau đó đã được đáp ứng bằng các bản phân tích khác về tình hình chính trị Tầu cộng được gửi tới NSC.↩
https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1969-76v18/sources
https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1969-76v18/terms
https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1969-76v18/persons
https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1969-76v18/comp1
https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1969-76v18/ch1
https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1969-76v18/d23
https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1969-76v18/pg_230
1. Document 23
Foreign Relations of the United States, 1969–1976, Volume XVIII, China, 1973–1976
23. Memorandum From the President’s Assistant for National Security Affairs (Kissinger) to President Nixon1
Washington, March 16, 1973.
SUBJECT
- Department of State Analysis of China’s Troubled Domestic Political Situation
At Tab A is an analysis of current political conditions in the People’s Republic of China prepared by the Department of State, which Secretary Rogers has sent to you.2 This analysis seems to embody the view most prevalent in the government that there is a continuing and tenuous political balance between Communist Party and military officials in the wake of the Lin Piao affair of September 1971. The State paper emphasizes the following points:
- —There is a continuing effort by Party leaders to downgrade the power of the military in political affairs. This power was built up by Lin Piao and his followers during the Cultural Revolution. The civilian leaders now find the military reluctant to relinquish their authority, even in the wake of Lin’s death while fleeing toward the Soviet Union.
- —The central leadership in Peking is finding it difficult to recentralize power. There is considerable instability in personnel assignments in the provinces, suggesting continuing efforts to remove local and provincial leaders not responsive to Peking.
- —The national leadership remains in a state of precarious balance, with continuing inability to reach consensus on new personnel assignments. There is still no Defense Minister; less than half of the state ministries have appointed ministers in command; and only 12 of the 25 Party politburo members are active.
- —China gives all appearances of a country in an unresolved succession crisis. While officials stress that there is “collective leadership,” it is anticipated that the death of Mao Tse-tung and/or Chou En-lai could lead to considerable instability as political institutions are still fragile four years after the conclusion of the Cultural Revolution.3
1. Source: National Archives, Nixon Presidential Materials, NSC Files, Box 526, Country Files, Far East, People’s Republic of China, Vol. 6, Jan–Apr 1973. Secret; Noforn Attachment. Sent for information. Holdridge sent this memorandum to Kissinger on January 29; Kissinger initialed it and passed it on to Nixon. (Ibid.) According to the attached correspondence profile, Nixon saw it on March 29.↩
2. Dated January 8, attached but not printed.↩
3. The President underlined “death of Mao Tse-tung and/or Chou En-lai” and wrote, “K—what is your analysis as to what we can expect in the event?—What should our contingency be?” On March 29, Scowcroft asked Holdridge to prepare a response to the President. (National Archives, Nixon Presidential Materials, NSC Files, Box 526, Country Files, Far East, People’s Republic of China, Vol. 6, Jan–Apr 1973) According to the White House correspondence profile attached to Rogers’ memorandum, this request was instead fulfilled by other analyses of the Chinese political situation that reached the NSC.↩
https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1969-76v18/d23
https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1969-76v18/pg_230
Thân thế (các) nhân vật
Premier of the People’s Republic of China; member, Standing Committee of the Chinese Communist Party’s Political Bureau
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zhou_Enlai
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Premier_of_the_People%27s_Republic_of_China
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minister_of_Foreign_Affairs_of_the_People%27s_Republic_of_China
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vice_Chairman_of_the_Chinese_Communist_Party
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vice_Chairman_of_the_Chinese_Communist_Party
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chairman_of_the_Chinese_People%27s_Political_Consultative_Conference
https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1969-76v17/d139
https://digitalarchive.wilsoncenter.org/document/zhou-enlai-talking-ho-chi-minh
https://digitalarchive.wilsoncenter.org/search?f[0]=topics:86538&fo[0]=86538
Tài liệu Chu Ân Lai yêu cầu Hoa Kỳ loại bỏ Tổng Thống Nguyễn Văn Thiệu và dùng Dương Văn Minh để lật đổ hai nền Đệ I và Đệ II VNCH.
https://digitalarchive.wilsoncenter.org/document/discussion-between-zhou-enlai-and-le-duc-tho
https://digitalarchive.wilsoncenter.org/document/89367/download
member, National Security Council Operations staff/East Asia until April 1973; co-Deputy Chief of Mission, U.S. Embassy in Beijing from 1973 until 1975
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_H._Holdridge
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Ambassador_to_Indonesia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assistant_Secretary_of_State_for_East_Asian_and_Pacific_Affairs
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Ambassador_to_the_Republic_of_Singapore
https://www.uscpf.org/v2/johnholdridge.html
https://www.nndb.com/people/033/000127649/
https://www.uscpf.org/v2/holdridgebio.html
Henry A Kissinger
Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs until November 3, 1975; also Secretary of State from September 21, 1973
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/20/bilderberg-meeting-group-lisbon-kissinger
https://www.theguardian.com/world/bilderberg
https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1969-76ve13/summary
https://china.usc.edu/getting-beijing-henry-kissingers-secret-1971-trip
https://china.usc.edu/catalog/documents/us-china
http://www.archives.gov/press/press-releases/2001/nr01-47.html
https://china.usc.edu/talking-points-july-22-august-3-2011
https://china.usc.edu/getting-beijing-henry-kissingers-secret-1971-trip#meetings
https://china.usc.edu/getting-beijing-henry-kissingers-secret-1971-trip#nixon-announcement
https://china.usc.edu/getting-beijing-henry-kissingers-secret-1971-trip#chinese-accept
https://china.usc.edu/getting-beijing-henry-kissingers-secret-1971-trip#signals
https://china.usc.edu/getting-beijing-henry-kissingers-secret-1971-trip#the_aim
http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/23927/richard-m-nixon/asia-after-viet-nam
https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1969-76v17/d4
https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1969-76v17/d12
https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1969-76v17/d13
https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1969-76v17/d141
https://2001-2009.state.gov/documents/organization/100324.pdf
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_Kissinger_and_the_Vietnam_War
Lesson in Vietnam from Kissinger to Nixon: “when we made it “our war” we would not let the South Vietnamese fight it; when it again became “their war”, we would not help them fight it.”
(We also had trouble with excesses here: when we made it “our war” we would not let the South Vietnamese fight it; when it again became “their war,” we would not help them fight it. Ironically, we prepared the South Vietnamese for main force warfare after 1954 (anticipating another Korean-type attack), and they faced a political war; they had prepared themselves for political warfare after 1973 only to be faced with a main force invasion 20 years after it had been expected.)
https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1969-76v10/d280
Lesson of Vietnam May 12 1975 by Henry A. Kissinger
https://www.fordlibrarymuseum.gov/library/exhibits/vietnam/032400091-002.pdf
https://thebattleofkontum.com/extras/kissinger.html
“Richard M. Nixon and Kissinger on 3 August 1972,” Conversation 760-006, Presidential Recordings Digital Edition [Fatal Politics, ed. Ken Huges] (Charlottesville: University of Virginia Press, 2014-). URL:https://prde.upress.virginia.edu/conversations/4006748
https://player.vimeo.com/video/889937807?h=e44572c8f3&color=e57200&title=0&byline=0&portrait=0
https://player.vimeo.com/video/889937807?h=e44572c8f3&color=e57200&title=0&byline=0&portrait=0
Discover the Truth at:
https://www.theblackvault.com/documentarchive/the-cias-vietnam-document-cd-rom/
The secret life of Henry Kissinger minutes of a 1975 meeting with Lawrence Eagleburger
https://etan.org/news/kissinger/secret.htm
Henry Kissinger and the Truth About Negotiations In Vietnam
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z5fxxKVfX5g
Henry Kissinger - Secrets of a superpower | DW Documentary
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bWVMTKeAwlA
The Untold Truth of Henry Kissinger
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0iheZdvWdbI&t=1s
Was Henry Kissinger a War Criminal?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=COqq7862wcU&t=25s
Lin Piao (Lin Biao),
Deputy Premier and Minister of Defense of the People’s Republic of China
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lin_Biao
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vice_Chairman_of_the_Chinese_Communist_Party
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vice_Premier_of_the_People%27s_Republic_of_China
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minister_of_National_Defense_of_the_People%27s_Republic_of_China
https://www.britannica.com/biography/Lin-Biao
Chairman of the Central Committee of the People’s Republic of China
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mao_Zedong
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chairman_of_the_Communist_Party_of_China
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chairman_of_the_People%27s_Republic_of_China
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chairman_of_the_Central_Military_Commission_(China)
https://www.biography.com/political-figures/mao-tse-tung
https://www.newworldencyclopedia.org/entry/Mao_Zedong
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Guards
Nixon Richard M.,
Vice President of the United States
https://www.history.com/topics/us-presidents/richard-m-nixon
https://www.britannica.com/event/Watergate-Scandal
https://soundcloud.com/the-miller-center-at-uva/14-nov-68-lbj-and-nixon
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Nixon
https://soundcloud.com/the-miller-center-at-uva
https://www.britannica.com/event/Vietnam-War
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Nixon
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/amex/honor/peopleevents/e_paris.html
https://www.britannica.com/event/Vietnam-War
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/31/opinion/sunday/nixons-vietnam-treachery.html
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/12/31/opinion/sunday/haldeman-notes.html
http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-21768668
https://www.nixonlibrary.gov/index.php
https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1964-68v07/ch5
https://www.lovethetruth.com/books/13_bloodlines/bundy.htm
https://www.lovethetruth.com/books/13_bloodlines/toc.htm
Nixon, Richard M.,
President of the United States
https://2001-2009.state.gov/documents/organization/100324.pdf
https://www.history.com/topics/us-presidents/richard-m-nixon
https://www.britannica.com/event/Watergate-Scandal
https://soundcloud.com/the-miller-center-at-uva/14-nov-68-lbj-and-nixon
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Nixon
https://soundcloud.com/the-miller-center-at-uva
https://www.britannica.com/event/Vietnam-War
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Nixon
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/amex/honor/peopleevents/e_paris.html
https://www.britannica.com/event/Vietnam-War
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/31/opinion/sunday/nixons-vietnam-treachery.html
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/12/31/opinion/sunday/haldeman-notes.html
http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-21768668
https://www.nixonlibrary.gov/index.php
https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1964-68v07/ch5
https://www.lovethetruth.com/books/13_bloodlines/bundy.htm
https://www.lovethetruth.com/books/13_bloodlines/toc.htm
Nixon had a Trip to China from February 21 to 28 1972,
https://www.nixonlibrary.gov/nixons-trip-china
http://www.presidentialtimeline.org/
https://www.nixonlibrary.gov/sites/default/files/virtuallibrary/tapeexcerpts/china-656-10a.pdf
https://www.nixonlibrary.gov/sites/default/files/virtuallibrary/tapeexcerpts/china-656-10b.pdf
https://www.nixonlibrary.gov/sites/default/files/virtuallibrary/tapeexcerpts/china-92-1a.pdf
https://www.nixonlibrary.gov/sites/default/files/virtuallibrary/tapeexcerpts/china-92-1b.pdf
https://www.nixonlibrary.gov/sites/default/files/virtuallibrary/tapeexcerpts/china-21-56.pdf
https://www.nixonlibrary.gov/sites/default/files/virtuallibrary/tapeexcerpts/china-656-10a.mp3
https://www.nixonlibrary.gov/sites/default/files/virtuallibrary/tapeexcerpts/china-656-10b.mp3
https://www.nixonlibrary.gov/sites/default/files/virtuallibrary/tapeexcerpts/china-92-1a.mp3
https://www.nixonlibrary.gov/sites/default/files/virtuallibrary/tapeexcerpts/china-92-1b.mp3
https://www.nixonlibrary.gov/sites/default/files/virtuallibrary/tapeexcerpts/china-21-56.mp3
https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/nuclear-vault-vietnam/2023-03-24/movement-and-madman
The Vietnam War Johnson and Nixon Administrations Videos
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https://www.c-span.org/program/the-presidency/reflections-on-richard-nixon/431130
July 16, 1973 Last Aired July 22, 2013
Senate Watergate Committee Testimony
https://www.c-span.org/program/vignette/senate-watergate-committee-testimony/316346
April 26, 2016 Last Aired June 5, 2016
Vietnam War Commander in Chief
https://www.c-span.org/program/american-history-tv/vietnam-war-commanders-in-chief/439971
June 12, 2008 Last Aired July 22, 2013
Alexander Butterfield Oral History Interview, Part 2
June 12, 2008 Last Aired July 15, 2013
Alexander Butterfield Oral History Interview, Part 1
January 27, 2012 Last Aired June 11, 2012
President Nixon's Secret White House Tapes
https://www.c-span.org/program/american-history-tv/president-nixons-secret-white-house-tapes/277123
July 25, 1994 Last Aired June 20, 2008
Watergate: Corruption of American Politics
https://www.c-span.org/program/public-affairs-event/watergate-corruption-of-american-politics/119480
February 16, 2003 Last Aired December 25, 2003
Presidential Tapes: Taping Systems History
https://www.c-span.org/program/public-affairs-event/presidential-tapes-taping-systems-history/122572
Alexander Butterfield: The 60 Minutes Watergate Interview (1975)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ss9AkLUmM4g
Watergate Hearing: Alexander Butterfield Testimony
Alexander Butterfield Was ‘Worried To Death’ Testifying Against Nixon
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c52oIe3Gj6w
How Nixon’s Invasion of Cambodia Triggered a Check on Presidential Power
Vietnam War Cambodia and Laos
https://www.history.com/articles/nixon-war-powers-act-vietnam-war-cambodia
Nixon's Vietnam Visit 1965, Rare Film Unearthed
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RaTi8OEpINI
Nixon on LBJ and Vietnam: Where Did It All Go Wrong?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-n-4o3vOYD4
1969 July 30_Tổng Thống Hoa Kỳ 🇺🇸 Richard M. Nixon Thăm Việt Nam Cộng Hoà.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZRp4v6M6YJw&t=19s
Secretary of State from January 21, 1969
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_P._Rogers
https://history.state.gov/departmenthistory/people/rogers-william-pierce
https://www.justice.gov/ag/bio/rogers-william-pierce
https://millercenter.org/president/nixon/essays/rogers-1969-secretary-of-state
https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_P._Rogers
General, USAF, Military Assistant to the President until 1973; Deputy Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs from August 1973 until 1975
https://warontherocks.com/2020/08/brent-scowcroft-and-american-military-intervention/
https://warontherocks.com/2020/08/blame-it-on-the-blob-how-to-evaluate-american-grand-strategy/
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https://www.whitehouse.gov/piab/
https://www.publicaffairsbooks.com/titles/bartholomew-sparrow/the-strategist/9781586489632/
http://web1.millercenter.org/poh/transcripts/ohp_1999_1112_scowcroft.pdf
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/12/us/politics/brent-scowcroft.html
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-08-13/scowcroft-model
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https://www.twelvebooks.com/titles/philip-zelikow/to-build-a-better-world/9781538764688/
https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300233827/post-wall-post-square
https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300233827/post-wall-post-square
https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/War-in-a-Time-of-Peace/David-Halberstam/9781501141508
https://www.adst.org/OH%20TOCs/Inderfurth,Karl%20F.toc.pdf
https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB1029371773228069195
https://www.nytimes.com/2002/08/25/opinion/the-right-way-to-change-a-regime.html
https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/592622/to-start-a-war-by-robert-draper/
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https://www.ft.com/content/de843f6e-0be1-4667-8a9f-f397cf840e72
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https://www.fordlibrarymuseum.gov/library/document/0204/7505562.pdf
https://news.virginia.edu/content/uvas-miller-center-releases-secret-brent-scowcroft-oral-history
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