Lãnh Thổ Lãnh Hải Việt-Nam

20260723 CDTL NRM D23 16 March 1973 23. Bản ghi nhớ của Kissinger Phụ tá Tổng thống về NSA gửi Tổng thống Nixon.

https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1969-76v18/d23

Google Translated

Tài liệu số 23

Quan hệ Đối ngoại của Hoa Kỳ, 1969–1976, Tập XVIII, Trung Quốc, 1973–1976

23. Bản ghi nhớ của Kissinger Phụ tá Tổng thống về NSA gửi Tổng thống Nixon.

Washington, ngày 16 tháng 3 năm 1973.

CHỦ ĐỀ

Bản phân tích của Bộ Ngoại giao về tình hình chính trị nội bộ đầy bất ổn của Tầu cộng.[Trang 230]

Tại Mục A là bản phân tích về tình hình chính trị hiện nay tại Cộng hòa Nhân dân Trung Hoa do Bộ Ngoại giao soạn thảo và được Ngoại trưởng Rogers gửi tới Ngài. Bản phân tích này dường như phản ánh quan điểm phổ biến nhất trong chính quyền, cho rằng đang tồn tại một thế cân bằng chính trị mong manh và dai dẳng giữa các quan chức Đảng Cộng sản và giới quân sự sau sự kiện Lâm Bưu vào tháng 9 năm 1971. Tài liệu của Bộ Ngoại giao nhấn mạnh những điểm sau:

—Các nhà lãnh đạo Đảng vẫn đang nỗ lực giảm bớt quyền lực của quân đội trong các vấn đề chính trị. Quyền lực này vốn được Lâm Bưu cùng phe cánh của ông ta gây dựng trong thời kỳ Cách mạng Văn hóa. Giờ đây, các nhà lãnh đạo dân sự nhận thấy quân đội tỏ ra miễn cưỡng trong việc từ bỏ quyền lực của mình, ngay cả sau khi Lâm Bưu đã qua đời trong lúc đang chạy trốn sang Liên Xô.

—Ban lãnh đạo trung ương tại Bắc Kinh đang gặp khó khăn trong việc tái tập trung quyền lực. Tình trạng nhân sự tại các địa phương đang biến động mạnh, cho thấy những nỗ lực không ngừng nhằm loại bỏ các lãnh đạo địa phương và cấp tỉnh không tuân thủ chỉ đạo từ Bắc Kinh.

—Ban lãnh đạo quốc gia vẫn duy trì thế cân bằng bấp bênh, do chưa thể đạt được sự đồng thuận về việc bổ nhiệm nhân sự mới. Hiện vẫn chưa có Bộ trưởng Quốc phòng; chưa đến một nửa số bộ ngành đã có bộ trưởng chính thức; và chỉ 12 trong số 25 ủy viên Bộ Chính trị đang thực thi nhiệm vụ.

—Tầu cộng mang đầy đủ diện mạo của một quốc gia đang trải qua cuộc khủng hoảng kế nhiệm chưa có lời giải. Mặc dù các quan chức nhấn mạnh đến cơ chế “lãnh đạo tập thể”, người ta dự báo rằng sự ra đi của Mao Trạch Đông và/hoặc Chu Ân Lai có thể dẫn đến tình trạng bất ổn đáng kể, bởi lẽ các thể chế chính trị vẫn còn mong manh sau bốn năm kể từ khi Cách mạng Văn hóa kết thúc.

1. Nguồn: Cơ quan Lưu trữ Quốc gia, Tài liệu Tổng thống Nixon, Hồ sơ NSC, Hộp 526, Hồ sơ Quốc gia, Viễn Đông, Cộng hòa Nhân dân Trung Hoa, Tập 6, tháng 1–4 năm 1973. Mật; Tài liệu đính kèm không được chia sẻ cho nước ngoài (Noforn). Được gửi để báo cáo thông tin. Holdridge gửi bản ghi nhớ này cho Kissinger vào ngày 29 tháng 1; Kissinger đã ký tắt và chuyển tiếp cho Nixon. (Sđd.) Theo hồ sơ tóm tắt thư từ đính kèm, Nixon đã xem tài liệu này vào ngày 29 tháng 3.↩

2. Đề ngày 8 tháng 1, có đính kèm nhưng không được in ra.↩

3. Tổng thống đã gạch dưới cụm từ “cái chết của Mao Trạch Đông và/hoặc Chu Ân Lai” và viết: “K—ông phân tích thế nào về những gì có thể xảy ra trong tình huống đó?—Chúng ta nên có phương án dự phòng nào?” Vào ngày 29 tháng 3, Scowcroft yêu cầu Holdridge soạn thảo văn bản phúc đáp gửi Tổng thống. (Cơ quan Lưu trữ Quốc gia, Tài liệu Tổng thống Nixon, Hồ sơ NSC, Hộp 526, Hồ sơ Quốc gia, Viễn Đông, Cộng hòa Nhân dân Trung Hoa, Tập 6, tháng 1–4 năm 1973) Theo hồ sơ tóm tắt thư từ của Tòa Bạch Ốc đính kèm bản ghi nhớ của Rogers, yêu cầu này sau đó đã được đáp ứng bằng các bản phân tích khác về tình hình chính trị Tầu cộng được gửi tới NSC.↩

Sources

https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1969-76v18/sources

Abbreviations and Terms

https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1969-76v18/terms

Persons

https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1969-76v18/persons

China, 1973–1976

https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1969-76v18/comp1

Kissinger’s Visits to Beijing and the Establishment of the Liaison Offices, January 1973–May 1973 (Documents 1–34)

https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1969-76v18/ch1

https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1969-76v18/d23

https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1969-76v18/pg_230

1. Document 23

Foreign Relations of the United States, 1969–1976, Volume XVIII, China, 1973–1976

23. Memorandum From the President’s Assistant for National Security Affairs (Kissinger) to President Nixon1

Washington, March 16, 1973.

SUBJECT

Department of State Analysis of China’s Troubled Domestic Political Situation

[Page 230]

At Tab A is an analysis of current political conditions in the People’s Republic of China prepared by the Department of State, which Secretary Rogers has sent to you.2 This analysis seems to embody the view most prevalent in the government that there is a continuing and tenuous political balance between Communist Party and military officials in the wake of the Lin Piao affair of September 1971. The State paper emphasizes the following points:

—There is a continuing effort by Party leaders to downgrade the power of the military in political affairs. This power was built up by Lin Piao and his followers during the Cultural Revolution. The civilian leaders now find the military reluctant to relinquish their authority, even in the wake of Lin’s death while fleeing toward the Soviet Union.
—The central leadership in Peking is finding it difficult to recentralize power. There is considerable instability in personnel assignments in the provinces, suggesting continuing efforts to remove local and provincial leaders not responsive to Peking.
—The national leadership remains in a state of precarious balance, with continuing inability to reach consensus on new personnel assignments. There is still no Defense Minister; less than half of the state ministries have appointed ministers in command; and only 12 of the 25 Party politburo members are active.
—China gives all appearances of a country in an unresolved succession crisis. While officials stress that there is “collective leadership,” it is anticipated that the death of Mao Tse-tung and/or Chou En-lai could lead to considerable instability as political institutions are still fragile four years after the conclusion of the Cultural Revolution.3

1. Source: National Archives, Nixon Presidential Materials, NSC Files, Box 526, Country Files, Far East, People’s Republic of China, Vol. 6, Jan–Apr 1973. Secret; Noforn Attachment. Sent for information. Holdridge sent this memorandum to Kissinger on January 29; Kissinger initialed it and passed it on to Nixon. (Ibid.) According to the attached correspondence profile, Nixon saw it on March 29.↩

2. Dated January 8, attached but not printed.↩

3. The President underlined “death of Mao Tse-tung and/or Chou En-lai” and wrote, “K—what is your analysis as to what we can expect in the event?—What should our contingency be?” On March 29, Scowcroft asked Holdridge to prepare a response to the President. (National Archives, Nixon Presidential Materials, NSC Files, Box 526, Country Files, Far East, People’s Republic of China, Vol. 6, Jan–Apr 1973) According to the White House correspondence profile attached to Rogers’ memorandum, this request was instead fulfilled by other analyses of the Chinese political situation that reached the NSC.↩

https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1969-76v18/d23

https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1969-76v18/pg_230

Thân thế (các) nhân vật

Chou En-lai, (Zhou Enlai)

Premier of the People’s Republic of China; member, Standing Committee of the Chinese Communist Party’s Political Bureau

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zhou_Enlai

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Premier_of_the_People%27s_Republic_of_China

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minister_of_Foreign_Affairs_of_the_People%27s_Republic_of_China

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vice_Chairman_of_the_Chinese_Communist_Party

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chairman_of_the_Chinese_People%27s_Political_Consultative_Conference

https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1969-76v17/d139

https://digitalarchive.wilsoncenter.org/document/memorandum-conversation-between-mao-zedong-zhou-enlai-and-henry-kissinger

https://digitalarchive.wilsoncenter.org/document/zhou-enlai-talking-ho-chi-minh

https://digitalarchive.wilsoncenter.org/search?f[0]=topics:86538&fo[0]=86538

https://digitalarchive.wilsoncenter.org/search?search_api_fulltext=&items_per_page=100&sort_bef_combine=created_DESC&f%5B0%5D=topics%3A86538&fo%5B0%5D=86538

https://digitalarchive.wilsoncenter.org/search?search_api_fulltext=&items_per_page=100&sort_bef_combine=created_DESC&f%5B0%5D=topics%3A86538&fo%5B0%5D=86538&page=1

https://digitalarchive.wilsoncenter.org/search?search_api_fulltext=&items_per_page=100&sort_bef_combine=created_DESC&f%5B0%5D=topics%3A86538&fo%5B0%5D=86538&page=2

Tài liệu Chu Ân Lai yêu cầu Hoa Kỳ loại bỏ Tổng Thống Nguyễn Văn Thiệu và dùng Dương Văn Minh để lật đổ hai nền Đệ I và Đệ II VNCH.

https://digitalarchive.wilsoncenter.org/search?search_api_fulltext=&items_per_page=100&sort_bef_combine=created_DESC&f%5B0%5D=people%3A84942&fo%5B0%5D=84942

https://digitalarchive.wilsoncenter.org/document/discussion-between-zhou-enlai-and-le-duc-tho

https://digitalarchive.wilsoncenter.org/document/89367/download

Holdridge, John H.,

member, National Security Council Operations staff/East Asia until April 1973; co-Deputy Chief of Mission, U.S. Embassy in Beijing from 1973 until 1975

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_H._Holdridge

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Ambassador_to_Indonesia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assistant_Secretary_of_State_for_East_Asian_and_Pacific_Affairs

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Ambassador_to_the_Republic_of_Singapore

https://www.uscpf.org/v2/johnholdridge.html

https://www.nndb.com/people/033/000127649/

https://www.uscpf.org/v2/holdridgebio.html

Henry A Kissinger

Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs until November 3, 1975; also Secretary of State from September 21, 1973

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/20/bilderberg-meeting-group-lisbon-kissinger

https://www.theguardian.com/world/bilderberg

https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1969-76ve13/summary

https://china.usc.edu/getting-beijing-henry-kissingers-secret-1971-trip

https://china.usc.edu/sites/default/files/styles/article_node_featured/public/article/featured-image/kissinger-zhou-sm_0.jpg?itok=qDjPx2_m

https://china.usc.edu/catalog/documents/us-china

http://www.archives.gov/press/press-releases/2001/nr01-47.html

https://china.usc.edu/talking-points-july-22-august-3-2011

https://china.usc.edu/getting-beijing-henry-kissingers-secret-1971-trip#meetings

https://china.usc.edu/getting-beijing-henry-kissingers-secret-1971-trip#nixon-announcement

https://china.usc.edu/getting-beijing-henry-kissingers-secret-1971-trip#chinese-accept

https://china.usc.edu/getting-beijing-henry-kissingers-secret-1971-trip#signals

https://china.usc.edu/getting-beijing-henry-kissingers-secret-1971-trip#the_aim

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/23927/richard-m-nixon/asia-after-viet-nam

https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1969-76v17/d4

https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1969-76v17/d12

https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1969-76v17/d13

https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1969-76v17/d141

https://2001-2009.state.gov/documents/organization/100324.pdf

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_Kissinger_and_the_Vietnam_War

Lesson in Vietnam from Kissinger to Nixon: “when we made it “our war” we would not let the South Vietnamese fight it; when it again became “their war”, we would not help them fight it.”

(We also had trouble with excesses here: when we made it “our war” we would not let the South Vietnamese fight it; when it again became “their war,” we would not help them fight it. Ironically, we prepared the South Vietnamese for main force warfare after 1954 (anticipating another Korean-type attack), and they faced a political war; they had prepared themselves for political warfare after 1973 only to be faced with a main force invasion 20 years after it had been expected.)

https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1969-76v10/d280

Lesson of Vietnam May 12 1975 by Henry A. Kissinger

https://www.fordlibrarymuseum.gov/library/exhibits/vietnam/032400091-002.pdf

https://thebattleofkontum.com/extras/kissinger.html

“Richard M. Nixon and Kissinger on 3 August 1972,” Conversation 760-006, Presidential Recordings Digital Edition [Fatal Politics, ed. Ken Huges] (Charlottesville: University of Virginia Press, 2014-). URL:https://prde.upress.virginia.edu/conversations/4006748

https://player.vimeo.com/video/889937807?h=e44572c8f3&color=e57200&title=0&byline=0&portrait=0

https://millercenter.org/the-presidency/educational-resources/nixon-kissinger-and-the-decent-interval

https://player.vimeo.com/video/889937807?h=e44572c8f3&color=e57200&title=0&byline=0&portrait=0

Discover the Truth at:

http://www.theblackvault.com

https://www.theblackvault.com/documentarchive/the-cias-vietnam-document-cd-rom/

The secret life of Henry Kissinger minutes of a 1975 meeting with Lawrence Eagleburger

https://etan.org/news/kissinger/secret.htm

Henry Kissinger and the Truth About Negotiations In Vietnam

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z5fxxKVfX5g

Henry Kissinger - Secrets of a superpower | DW Documentary

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bWVMTKeAwlA

The Untold Truth of Henry Kissinger

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0iheZdvWdbI&t=1s

Was Henry Kissinger a War Criminal?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=COqq7862wcU&t=25s

Lin Piao (Lin Biao),

Deputy Premier and Minister of Defense of the People’s Republic of China

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lin_Biao

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vice_Chairman_of_the_Chinese_Communist_Party

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vice_Premier_of_the_People%27s_Republic_of_China

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minister_of_National_Defense_of_the_People%27s_Republic_of_China

https://www.britannica.com/biography/Lin-Biao

Mao Tse-tung (Mao Zedong),

Chairman of the Central Committee of the People’s Republic of China

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mao_Zedong

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chairman_of_the_Communist_Party_of_China

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chairman_of_the_People%27s_Republic_of_China

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chairman_of_the_Central_Military_Commission_(China)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_People%27s_Government_of_the_People%27s_Republic_of_China_(1949%E2%80%931954)

https://www.biography.com/political-figures/mao-tse-tung

https://www.newworldencyclopedia.org/entry/Mao_Zedong

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Guards

Nixon Richard M.,

Vice President of the United States

https://www.history.com/topics/us-presidents/richard-m-nixon

https://www.britannica.com/event/Watergate-Scandal

https://soundcloud.com/the-miller-center-at-uva/14-nov-68-lbj-and-nixon

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Nixon

https://soundcloud.com/the-miller-center-at-uva/sets/14-november-1968-president-lyndon-johnson-and-president-elect-richard-nixon

https://soundcloud.com/the-miller-center-at-uva

https://www.britannica.com/event/Vietnam-War

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Nixon

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/notes-indicate-nixon-interfered-1968-peace-talks-180961627/

https://th-thumbnailer.cdn-si-edu.com/26l17xNsW8a8pOyGibbKE-32dgE=/1000x750/filters:no_upscale()/https://tf-cmsv2-smithsonianmag-media.s3.amazonaws.com/filer/f4/cb/f4cb92c9-4131-4e0f-ae4a-307144393214/nixoncampaigns.jpg

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/amex/honor/peopleevents/e_paris.html

https://www.britannica.com/event/Vietnam-War

http://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/nixon-prolonged-vietnam-war-for-political-gainand-johnson-knew-about-it-newly-unclassified-tapes-suggest-3595441/

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/31/opinion/sunday/nixons-vietnam-treachery.html

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/12/31/opinion/sunday/haldeman-notes.html

http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-21768668

https://www.nixonlibrary.gov/index.php

https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1964-68v07/ch5

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2015/08/09/dont_blame_nixon_for_scuttled_peace_overture_127667.html

https://www.lovethetruth.com/books/13_bloodlines/bundy.htm

https://www.lovethetruth.com/books/13_bloodlines/toc.htm

Nixon, Richard M.,

President of the United States

https://2001-2009.state.gov/documents/organization/100324.pdf

https://www.history.com/topics/us-presidents/richard-m-nixon

https://www.britannica.com/event/Watergate-Scandal

https://soundcloud.com/the-miller-center-at-uva/14-nov-68-lbj-and-nixon

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Nixon

https://soundcloud.com/the-miller-center-at-uva/sets/14-november-1968-president-lyndon-johnson-and-president-elect-richard-nixon

https://soundcloud.com/the-miller-center-at-uva

https://www.britannica.com/event/Vietnam-War

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Nixon

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/notes-indicate-nixon-interfered-1968-peace-talks-180961627/

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/amex/honor/peopleevents/e_paris.html

https://www.britannica.com/event/Vietnam-War

http://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/nixon-prolonged-vietnam-war-for-political-gainand-johnson-knew-about-it-newly-unclassified-tapes-suggest-3595441/

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/31/opinion/sunday/nixons-vietnam-treachery.html

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/12/31/opinion/sunday/haldeman-notes.html

http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-21768668

https://www.nixonlibrary.gov/index.php

https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1964-68v07/ch5

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2015/08/09/dont_blame_nixon_for_scuttled_peace_overture_127667.html

https://www.lovethetruth.com/books/13_bloodlines/bundy.htm

https://www.lovethetruth.com/books/13_bloodlines/toc.htm

Nixon had a Trip to China from February 21 to 28 1972,

https://www.nixonlibrary.gov/nixons-trip-china

http://www.presidentialtimeline.org/

https://www.nixonlibrary.gov/sites/default/files/virtuallibrary/tapeexcerpts/china-656-10a.pdf

https://www.nixonlibrary.gov/sites/default/files/virtuallibrary/tapeexcerpts/china-656-10b.pdf

https://www.nixonlibrary.gov/sites/default/files/virtuallibrary/tapeexcerpts/china-92-1a.pdf

https://www.nixonlibrary.gov/sites/default/files/virtuallibrary/tapeexcerpts/china-92-1b.pdf

https://www.nixonlibrary.gov/sites/default/files/virtuallibrary/tapeexcerpts/china-21-56.pdf

https://www.nixonlibrary.gov/sites/default/files/virtuallibrary/tapeexcerpts/china-656-10a.mp3

https://www.nixonlibrary.gov/sites/default/files/virtuallibrary/tapeexcerpts/china-656-10b.mp3

https://www.nixonlibrary.gov/sites/default/files/virtuallibrary/tapeexcerpts/china-92-1a.mp3

https://www.nixonlibrary.gov/sites/default/files/virtuallibrary/tapeexcerpts/china-92-1b.mp3

https://www.nixonlibrary.gov/sites/default/files/virtuallibrary/tapeexcerpts/china-21-56.mp3

https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/nuclear-vault-vietnam/2023-03-24/movement-and-madman

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c52oIe3Gj6w

How Nixon’s Invasion of Cambodia Triggered a Check on Presidential Power

Vietnam War Cambodia and Laos

https://www.history.com/articles/nixon-war-powers-act-vietnam-war-cambodia

Nixon's Vietnam Visit 1965, Rare Film Unearthed

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RaTi8OEpINI

Nixon on LBJ and Vietnam: Where Did It All Go Wrong?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-n-4o3vOYD4

1969 July 30_Tổng Thống Hoa Kỳ 🇺🇸 Richard M. Nixon Thăm Việt Nam Cộng Hoà.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZRp4v6M6YJw&t=19s

Rogers, William P.,

Secretary of State from January 21, 1969

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_P._Rogers

https://history.state.gov/departmenthistory/people/rogers-william-pierce

https://www.justice.gov/ag/bio/rogers-william-pierce

https://www.diplomaticrooms.state.gov/william-pierce-rogers-1969-1973-administration-of-president-richard-m-nixon/

https://millercenter.org/president/nixon/essays/rogers-1969-secretary-of-state

https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_P._Rogers

Scowcroft, Brent,

General, USAF, Military Assistant to the President until 1973; Deputy Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs from August 1973 until 1975

https://warontherocks.com/2020/08/brent-scowcroft-and-american-military-intervention/

https://warontherocks.com/2020/08/blame-it-on-the-blob-how-to-evaluate-american-grand-strategy/

https://www.aspeninstitute.org/programs/aspen-strategy-group/about-asg/

https://www.whitehouse.gov/piab/

https://www.publicaffairsbooks.com/titles/bartholomew-sparrow/the-strategist/9781586489632/

http://web1.millercenter.org/poh/transcripts/ohp_1999_1112_scowcroft.pdf

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/12/us/politics/brent-scowcroft.html

https://www.thecipherbrief.com/column_article/remembering-brent-scowcrofts-accomplishments-on-arms-control

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-08-13/scowcroft-model

https://archive.org/stream/towercommission00unit?ref=ol#mode/2up

https://www.penguinrandomhouse.ca/books/253135/the-man-who-ran-washington-by-peter-baker-and-susan-glasser/9780385540551

https://www.twelvebooks.com/titles/philip-zelikow/to-build-a-better-world/9781538764688/