Lãnh Thổ Lãnh Hải Việt-Nam: 20251101 CDTL Lượng Giá Tình Báo Quốc Gia NIE 5314030174 Washington 23 May 1974 D128

20251101 CDTL Lượng Giá Tình Báo Quốc Gia NIE 5314030174 Washington 23 May 1974 D128

Foreign Relations of the United States, 1969–1976, Volume X, Vietnam, January 1973–July 1975

128. National Intelligence Estimate1

NIE 53/14.3–1–74

Washington, May 23, 1974.

https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1969-76v10/d128

https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1969-76v10/pg_528

Bản lượng giá NIE 53/14 3-1-1974

https://documents3.theblackvault.com/viewer/index.html?file=https%3A%2F%2Fdocuments2.theblackvault.com%2Fdocuments%2Fcia%2Fvietnam%2FNIE%2FNIE_53_14.3-1-74.pdf

NIE 53/14.3–1–74

Washington, May 23, 1974.

THE LIKELIHOOD OF A MAJOR NORTH VIETNAMESE OFFENSIVE AGAINST SOUTH VIETNAM BEFORE JUNE 30, 1975

Précis

A major Communist offensive in South Vietnam is unlikely during 1974. The picture for the first half of 1975, however, is less clear, and there obviously is a substantial risk that Hanoi will opt for a major offensive during this period. But our best judgment now is that Hanoi will not do so.2

If unforeseen and dramatic new developments occurred, the Communists could easily shift course to take advantage of them.

—They have the capability to launch an offensive with little warning.
—We expect the North Vietnamese to reassess their situation this summer or fall.
—Changes both in South Vietnam and in the international situation, particularly in the US, will weigh heavily in their calculations.
—The North Vietnamese would also consider the views of the Soviet Union and China, but the influence of Moscow and Peking on any reassessment in Hanoi would not be decisive.

Should a major offensive occur, the Communists could retake Quang Tri City, and perhaps capture Hue in MR 1, Kontum and Pleiku cities in MR 2 and Tay Ninh City in MR 3. If the Communists persisted in their offensive, this initial situation would probably be followed by a period of inconclusive fighting and, over time, further GVN losses. ARVN might be unable to regain the initiative, and it [Page 528] would be questionable whether the GVN would be able to survive without combat participation by US Air Force and Navy units. At a minimum, large-scale US logistic support would be required to stop the Communist drive.

Even if there is not a major offensive during the next year, current Communist strategy does call for some increase in the tempo of the conflict.

Furthermore, it is clear that at some point Hanoi will shift back to major warfare.

[Omitted here is the discussion section.]

Google Translated

NIE 53/14.3–1–74

Washington, ngày 23 tháng 5 năm 1974.

KHẢ NĂNG XẢY RA MỘT CUỘC TẤN CÔNG LỚN CỦA BẮC VIỆT NAM VÀO MIỀN NAM TRƯỚC NGÀY 30 THÁNG 6 NĂM 1975

Tóm tắt

Một cuộc tấn công lớn của Cộng sản vào Nam Việt Nam khó có thể xảy ra trong năm 1974. Tuy nhiên, bức tranh nửa đầu năm 1975 không rõ ràng, và rõ ràng có nguy cơ đáng kể rằng Hà Nội sẽ lựa chọn một cuộc tấn công lớn trong giai đoạn này. Nhưng đánh giá tốt nhất của chúng tôi hiện tại là Hà Nội sẽ không làm như vậy.

Nếu có những diễn biến mới bất ngờ và kịch tính xảy ra, Cộng sản có thể dễ dàng thay đổi hướng đi để tận dụng chúng.

—Họ có khả năng phát động một cuộc tấn công mà không có nhiều cảnh báo.

—Chúng tôi dự đoán Bắc Việt sẽ đánh giá lại tình hình của mình vào mùa hè hoặc mùa thu này.

—Những thay đổi ở cả Nam Việt Nam và tình hình quốc tế, đặc biệt là ở Hoa Kỳ, sẽ ảnh hưởng lớn đến tính toán của họ.

—Bắc Việt Nam cũng sẽ xem xét quan điểm của Liên Xô và Trung Quốc, nhưng ảnh hưởng của Moscow và Bắc Kinh đối với bất kỳ đánh giá lại nào ở Hà Nội sẽ không mang tính quyết định.

Nếu một cuộc tấn công lớn xảy ra, Cộng sản có thể chiếm lại thành phố Quảng Trị, và có thể chiếm Huế ở Quân khu 1, các thành phố Kontum và Pleiku ở Quân khu 2, và thành phố Tây Ninh ở Quân khu 3. Nếu Cộng sản tiếp tục tấn công, tình hình ban đầu này có thể sẽ dẫn đến một giai đoạn giao tranh không có kết quả rõ ràng và theo thời gian, Chính phủ Việt Nam Cộng hòa sẽ phải chịu thêm nhiều tổn thất. Quân đội Việt Nam Cộng hòa có thể không giành lại được thế chủ động, và việc Chính phủ Việt Nam Cộng hòa có thể tồn tại nếu không có sự tham gia chiến đấu của Không quân và Hải quân Hoa Kỳ hay không là điều đáng nghi ngờ. Ít nhất, cần có sự hỗ trợ tiếp liệu quy mô lớn của Hoa Kỳ để ngăn chặn cuộc tấn công của Cộng sản.

Ngay cả khi không có một cuộc tấn công lớn nào trong năm tới, chiến lược hiện tại của Cộng sản vẫn đòi hỏi phải tăng tốc độ xung đột.

Hơn nữa, rõ ràng là đến một lúc nào đó, Hà Nội sẽ quay trở lại chiến tranh quy mô lớn.

[Phần thảo luận bị lược bỏ ở đây.]

https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1969-76v10/d128

https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1969-76v10/pg_528

Thân thế (các) nhân vật/

Abbreviations & Terms

ARVN

FBI

GVN

NIC

NIE

USAF

USIB

Colby, William E

Director of the Far East Division, Operations Directorate, Central Intelligence Agency

Executive Director, Central Intelligence Agency until August 1973; Director of Central Intelligence from September 4, 1973

https://nsarchive2.gwu.edu/NSAEBB/NSAEBB362/index.htm

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Man_Nobody_Knew

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/former-cia-directors-death-raises-questions-divides-family_n_1130176

https://vva.org/arts-of-war/documentaries/new-doc-on-the-mysterious-death-of-william-colby/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Colby

https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Colby

Kennedy, Richard T.,

Colonel, USA, member, National Security Council staff; Deputy Assistant to the President for National Security Council planning from 1973 until 1975

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_T._Kennedy

https://oac.cdlib.org/findaid/ark:/13030/tf4000034s/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Under_Secretary_of_State_for_Management

https://history.state.gov/departmenthistory/people/kennedy-richard-thomas

https://history.state.gov/departmenthistory/people/principalofficers/under-secretary-for-mgmt

https://history.state.gov/departmenthistory/people/chiefsofmission/representative-to-iaea

https://history.state.gov/departmenthistory/people/principalofficers/ambassador-at-large

Henry A Kissinger

Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs until November 3, 1975; also Secretary of State from September 21, 1973

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/20/bilderberg-meeting-group-lisbon-kissinger

https://www.theguardian.com/world/bilderberg

https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1969-76ve13/summary

https://china.usc.edu/getting-beijing-henry-kissingers-secret-1971-trip

https://china.usc.edu/sites/default/files/styles/article_node_featured/public/article/featured-image/kissinger-zhou-sm_0.jpg?itok=qDjPx2_m

https://china.usc.edu/catalog/documents/us-china

http://www.archives.gov/press/press-releases/2001/nr01-47.html

https://china.usc.edu/talking-points-july-22-august-3-2011

https://china.usc.edu/getting-beijing-henry-kissingers-secret-1971-trip#meetings

https://china.usc.edu/getting-beijing-henry-kissingers-secret-1971-trip#nixon-announcement

https://china.usc.edu/getting-beijing-henry-kissingers-secret-1971-trip#chinese-accept

https://china.usc.edu/getting-beijing-henry-kissingers-secret-1971-trip#signals

https://china.usc.edu/getting-beijing-henry-kissingers-secret-1971-trip#the_aim

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/23927/richard-m-nixon/asia-after-viet-nam

https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1969-76v17/d4

https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1969-76v17/d12

https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1969-76v17/d13

https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1969-76v17/d141

https://2001-2009.state.gov/documents/organization/100324.pdf

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_Kissinger_and_the_Vietnam_War

Lesson in Vietnam from Kissinger to Nixon: “when we made it “our war” we would not let the South Vietnamese fight it; when it again became “their war”, we would not help them fight it.”

(We also had trouble with excesses here: when we made it “our war” we would not let the South Vietnamese fight it; when it again became “their war,” we would not help them fight it. Ironically, we prepared the South Vietnamese for main force warfare after 1954 (anticipating another Korean-type attack), and they faced a political war; they had prepared themselves for political warfare after 1973 only to be faced with a main force invasion 20 years after it had been expected.)

https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1969-76v10/d280

Lesson of Vietnam May 12 1975 by Henry A. Kissinger

https://www.fordlibrarymuseum.gov/library/exhibits/vietnam/032400091-002.pdf

https://thebattleofkontum.com/extras/kissinger.html

“Richard M. Nixon and Kissinger on 3 August 1972,” Conversation 760-006, Presidential Recordings Digital Edition [Fatal Politics, ed. Ken Huges] (Charlottesville: University of Virginia Press, 2014-). URL:https://prde.upress.virginia.edu/conversations/4006748

https://player.vimeo.com/video/889937807?h=e44572c8f3&color=e57200&title=0&byline=0&portrait=0

https://millercenter.org/the-presidency/educational-resources/nixon-kissinger-and-the-decent-interval

https://player.vimeo.com/video/889937807?h=e44572c8f3&color=e57200&title=0&byline=0&portrait=0

Discover the Truth at:

http://www.theblackvault.com

Nixon Richard M.,

Vice President of the United States

https://www.history.com/topics/us-presidents/richard-m-nixon

https://www.britannica.com/event/Watergate-Scandal

https://soundcloud.com/the-miller-center-at-uva/14-nov-68-lbj-and-nixon

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Nixon

https://soundcloud.com/the-miller-center-at-uva/sets/14-november-1968-president-lyndon-johnson-and-president-elect-richard-nixon

https://soundcloud.com/the-miller-center-at-uva

https://www.britannica.com/event/Vietnam-War

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Nixon

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/notes-indicate-nixon-interfered-1968-peace-talks-180961627/

https://th-thumbnailer.cdn-si-edu.com/26l17xNsW8a8pOyGibbKE-32dgE=/1000x750/filters:no_upscale()/https://tf-cmsv2-smithsonianmag-media.s3.amazonaws.com/filer/f4/cb/f4cb92c9-4131-4e0f-ae4a-307144393214/nixoncampaigns.jpg

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/amex/honor/peopleevents/e_paris.html

https://www.britannica.com/event/Vietnam-War

http://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/nixon-prolonged-vietnam-war-for-political-gainand-johnson-knew-about-it-newly-unclassified-tapes-suggest-3595441/

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/31/opinion/sunday/nixons-vietnam-treachery.html

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/12/31/opinion/sunday/haldeman-notes.html

http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-21768668

https://www.nixonlibrary.gov/index.php

https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1964-68v07/ch5

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2015/08/09/dont_blame_nixon_for_scuttled_peace_overture_127667.html

https://www.lovethetruth.com/books/13_bloodlines/bundy.htm

https://www.lovethetruth.com/books/13_bloodlines/toc.htm

Nixon, Richard M.,

President of the United States

https://2001-2009.state.gov/documents/organization/100324.pdf

https://www.history.com/topics/us-presidents/richard-m-nixon

https://www.britannica.com/event/Watergate-Scandal

https://soundcloud.com/the-miller-center-at-uva/14-nov-68-lbj-and-nixon

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Nixon

https://soundcloud.com/the-miller-center-at-uva/sets/14-november-1968-president-lyndon-johnson-and-president-elect-richard-nixon

https://soundcloud.com/the-miller-center-at-uva

https://www.britannica.com/event/Vietnam-War

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Nixon

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/notes-indicate-nixon-interfered-1968-peace-talks-180961627/

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/amex/honor/peopleevents/e_paris.html

https://www.britannica.com/event/Vietnam-War

http://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/nixon-prolonged-vietnam-war-for-political-gainand-johnson-knew-about-it-newly-unclassified-tapes-suggest-3595441/

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/31/opinion/sunday/nixons-vietnam-treachery.html

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/12/31/opinion/sunday/haldeman-notes.html

http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-21768668

https://www.nixonlibrary.gov/index.php

https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1964-68v07/ch5

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2015/08/09/dont_blame_nixon_for_scuttled_peace_overture_127667.html

https://www.lovethetruth.com/books/13_bloodlines/bundy.htm

https://www.lovethetruth.com/books/13_bloodlines/toc.htm

Nixon had a Trip to China from February 21 to 28 1972,

https://www.nixonlibrary.gov/nixons-trip-china

http://www.presidentialtimeline.org/

https://www.nixonlibrary.gov/sites/default/files/virtuallibrary/tapeexcerpts/china-656-10a.pdf

https://www.nixonlibrary.gov/sites/default/files/virtuallibrary/tapeexcerpts/china-656-10b.pdf

https://www.nixonlibrary.gov/sites/default/files/virtuallibrary/tapeexcerpts/china-92-1a.pdf

https://www.nixonlibrary.gov/sites/default/files/virtuallibrary/tapeexcerpts/china-92-1b.pdf

https://www.nixonlibrary.gov/sites/default/files/virtuallibrary/tapeexcerpts/china-21-56.pdf

https://www.nixonlibrary.gov/sites/default/files/virtuallibrary/tapeexcerpts/china-656-10a.mp3

https://www.nixonlibrary.gov/sites/default/files/virtuallibrary/tapeexcerpts/china-656-10b.mp3

https://www.nixonlibrary.gov/sites/default/files/virtuallibrary/tapeexcerpts/china-92-1a.mp3

https://www.nixonlibrary.gov/sites/default/files/virtuallibrary/tapeexcerpts/china-92-1b.mp3

https://www.nixonlibrary.gov/sites/default/files/virtuallibrary/tapeexcerpts/china-21-56.mp3

https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/nuclear-vault-vietnam/2023-03-24/movement-and-madman

The Vietnam War Johnson and Nixon Administrations Videos

March 2, 2016 Last Aired May 5, 2016

Reflections on Richard Nixon

https://www.c-span.org/program/the-presidency/reflections-on-richard-nixon/431130

July 16, 1973 Last Aired July 22, 2013

Senate Watergate Committee Testimony

https://www.c-span.org/program/vignette/senate-watergate-committee-testimony/316346

April 26, 2016 Last Aired June 5, 2016

Vietnam War Commander in Chief

https://www.c-span.org/program/american-history-tv/vietnam-war-commanders-in-chief/439971

June 12, 2008 Last Aired July 22, 2013

Alexander Butterfield Oral History Interview, Part 2

https://www.c-span.org/program/american-history-tv/alexander-butterfield-oral-history-interview-part-2/258425

June 12, 2008 Last Aired July 15, 2013

Alexander Butterfield Oral History Interview, Part 1

https://www.c-span.org/program/american-history-tv/alexander-butterfield-oral-history-interview-part-1/257651

January 27, 2012 Last Aired June 11, 2012

President Nixon's Secret White House Tapes

https://www.c-span.org/program/american-history-tv/president-nixons-secret-white-house-tapes/277123

July 25, 1994 Last Aired June 20, 2008

Watergate: Corruption of American Politics

https://www.c-span.org/program/public-affairs-event/watergate-corruption-of-american-politics/119480

February 16, 2003 Last Aired December 25, 2003

Presidential Tapes: Taping Systems History

https://www.c-span.org/program/public-affairs-event/presidential-tapes-taping-systems-history/122572

Alexander Butterfield: The 60 Minutes Watergate Interview (1975)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ss9AkLUmM4g

Watergate Hearing: Alexander Butterfield Testimony

https://www.c-span.org/clip/congress-investigates/watergate-hearing-alexander-butterfield-testimony/5118203

Alexander Butterfield Was ‘Worried To Death’ Testifying Against Nixon

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c52oIe3Gj6w

How Nixon’s Invasion of Cambodia Triggered a Check on Presidential Power

Vietnam War Cambodia and Laos

https://www.history.com/articles/nixon-war-powers-act-vietnam-war-cambodia

Sihanouk, Prince Norodom,

Norodom Sihanouk,

King of Cambodia to March 1955, thereafter Prince of Cambodia; Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, October 1955–January 1956; Prime Minister, Foreign Minister, and Minister of the Interior, March–April 1956; Prime Minister, September–October 1956; Prime Minister, Foreign Minister, Minister of Plans, and Minister of the Interior, April–July 1957

Cambodian Head of State until March 1970; thereafter, leader of Cambodian Government in exile in Beijing

Prince, Head of State of Cambodia until March 18, 1970; thereafter, leader of the Cambodian government-in-exile in Beijing (GRUNK)

4/11/75 - Phnom Penh Evacuation

Smyser, W. Richard,

member, National Security Council Operations staff/East Asia from 1973 until 1975

https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1969-76v06/d330

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/obituaries/wr-smyser-us-diplomat-turned-historian-of-postwar-germany-dies-at-86/2018/04/22/9d63bf0c-43f6-11e8-8569-26fda6b404c7_story.html

https://digitalarchive.wilsoncenter.org/document/90119/download

Agreement on Ending the War and Restoring Peace in Vietnam Paris 27 January 1973

https://www.cvce.eu/content/publication/2001/10/12/656ccc0d-31ef-42a6-a3e9-ce5ee7d4fc80/publishable_en.pdf

Paris Peace Accords

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Peace_Accords